Waterbury, Connecticut 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

233
FXUS61 KOKX 182329
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
729 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Southwest wind gusts to 45 mph likely this afternoon into
early evening, isolated 50 to 55 mph gusts possible. Gale
conditions expected on local waters into this evening. Low
potential for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms btwn 4 and
8pm, primarily across LoHud and interior S CT.

2) Dangerous rip currents expected at ocean beaches through
Friday.

3) After a mainly dry (perhaps an instability shower Sat and/or
Sun) and seasonably warm Fri-Sun, low pressure may bring a
period of heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms next Monday into
Monday Night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
An anomalously strong sfc low pressure system track through SE
Ontario and southern Quebec today as a mid/upper low and
associated trough accompany it. An impressive (for June) 130kt
jet at 300mb run through central/northern New England by this
afternoon.

Main story for this afternoon into early evening is synoptic
winds. Widespread 35 to 45 mph gusts are expected thru early
evening, with a few gusts to 50 to 55 mph possible. These winds
will continue into early evening as strengthening 45-55 950hpa
low- level jet slides from w to e overhead. Wind gusts should
gradually decrease into to the 25 to 30 mph range (occasional
gusts to 35 mph) through the late evening, but remaining gusty
overnight for city/coast. More sheltered interior areas should
be able to decouple below 10 mph. then decrease through the late
evening.

Otherwise, isolated convection potential along/ahead of
approaching pre- frontal trough into early this evening
afternoon (4 to 8pm), mainly across LoHud and interior southern
CT nearer the deeper synoptic forcing. CAMs in good agreement
with broken line of tstms over mid-Hudson Valley moving thru
central and northern New England thru early eve. Low- mid level
drying in wake of morning shortwave should keep activity
isolated and mainly across northern portions of local Tri- state
nearer the deeper synoptic forcing.

So primarily a conditional isolated low-topped supercells or
perhaps a line segment threat in the strong deep layer shear
(50-60kt), low CAPE environment. Damaging winds would be the
biggest threat with any thunderstorm with strong winds aloft and
low and mid- level dry air ( DCAPE values 800-1000J/kg). Some
low-level veering of the strong wind profiles does present a
non-zero tornado threat.

Drying conditions with tstm threat coming to an end after 7pm.

Otherwise, potential to be skirted by a few showers across
southern areas late tonight into Friday morning as remnant
tropical low slides off the north Carolina coast.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...

High rip current risk continues through Friday.

Breaking waves of 4 to 7 ft, from building southerly swells of
near 7 to 8 ft with 7 to 8 second period will continue dangerous
rip currents along the ocean beaches through this evening.

Winds will be westerly on Friday, but lingering 4-5ft@8sec S
swells, will bringing 3 to 6 ft breaking surf, highest for
eastern Li beaches. This should continue the high rip risk for
the LI beaches.


.KEY MESSAGE 3...
Global models continue in general agreement with a northern
stream upper low drifting from southern Ontario into southern
Quebec Mon into Tue. Meanwhile a PAC shortwave/vort train
ejects into the central Plains and works eastward towards the
region Monday into early Tuesday.

General agreement on resultant low pressure or a series of low
pressure waves developing east of the Rocky Mountains on Saturday
and tracking east along a stalled frontal boundary towards the
region Monday into Tuesday.

Still a good amount of timing/location spread with northern stream
low and PAC vorts, and possible convective error in the latter
features, which will affect the strength and timing of low
pressure/s. With that said, synoptic environment of moderate to
strong moisture convergence from a +2-4 STD llj lifting a nearly
2" PWAT, warm cloud and potentially weakly unstable airmass
over the region presents threat for a period of heavy rain and
embedded thunderstorms Monday into Monday Nigh. Ensemble
probabilities are signaling moderate ensemble probabilities of
>1" of rain in 24/hr, and low probabilities of 2" of rain in 24
hrs. Will have to monitor for an upward trend, with more
specificity and impacts details as we get into the high-res CAM
window this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cold front passes through early tonight.

VFR through the TAF period.

Gusts gradually come down through 06z with most terminals having
gusts end by 06z with sustained winds still around 10-13 kt at most
terminals. Gusts will return by 14z Friday morning peaking at around
20-25kt mainly out of the west through Friday afternoon with gusts
likely holding on through Friday evening.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts may hold on longer than indicated by TAFs during the overnight.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday night: VFR. W wind gusts 20-25 kt early, with gusts
eventually ending late.

Saturday: VFR. WNW-NW wind gusts 20-25 kt.

Sunday: VFR.

Monday: MVFR or lower with rain. Slight chance of thunderstorms.
S gusts 20 kt near the coast.

Tuesday: MVFR or lower possible with a chance of rain.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
S/SW gusts of 30-35 kt across all waters through into this
evening with seas increasing to 6-8 feet on the ocean. Gusts of
35-40kt likely on nearshore waters into early evening.

Winds shift to more W overnight and fall below SCA thresholds
on all waters. Residual high waves on the ocean will allow the
SCA to continue there through at least the day on Friday,
gradually falling below Friday Night.

Marginal SCA gusts likely for nearshore waters on Friday, which
may necessitate an SCA. SCA conditions remain possible for all
waters Friday night into Saturday

Low pressure may affect the waters on Monday, with SCA
conditions possible.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents through Friday evening for NYZ075-080-
     081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331-332-335-
     338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NV
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...NV